China’s EV sales now over 50%

History has been made over the period April 1-14, sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) exceeded half of all car sales in China. New energy vehicles is a Chinese umbrella term encompassing a number of types but in reality means largely pure electric vehicles and PHEVs.

Figures from the Passenger Association show that retail sales during the period were 516,000 down 11% year-on-year and down 3% month-on-month, which are not the greatest of figures. However, of these 260,000 were NEVs which is an increase of 32% YOY and 2% MOM. This makes the NEV share of sales 50.39%.

Previously the Economist Intelligence Unit predicted that NEVs wouldn’t make up over half of sales until 2028. And the Chinese Federation of Passenger Cars only predicts a 40% penetration rates for 2024. Based on that prediction sales would be in the region of 12 million this year.

Obviously this is just the result for two weeks of the year but there are indications that this result will extend for the year as well. Last month Wang Chuanfu, CEO of BYD, predicted that the result would be achieved within the next three months.

Furthermore, wholesale rates support the trend with a penetration rate of 50.19%. During the period wholesale sales were 534,000 cars up 13% YOY but down 9% MOM. Of these NEVs contributed to 268,000 of the total an increase of 43% YOY and up 8% MOM.  

Against this background there is a drop in the sales of ICE cars and this is being felt particularly by the joint ventures in China. Last year SAIC GM sales fell be 14.5%, GAC Honda’s by 13.7% and SAIC Volkswagen by 8%. March data shows that ICE cars that in past were sales champions had rapidly falling sales with results like the Toyota Camry down by 59.2% and VW Lavida down by 36.4%.

Wang Chuanfu also recently made another prediction that the JV’s would be left with only 10% market share and this prediction from these results also seems to be playing out.

Sohu