EVs Break Sales Records, but They Still Don't Meet Projections

From the March/April 2024 issue of Car and Driver.

It seems like every day we read a news report about the failing EV movement: plummeting sales, excess inventory, production cuts, factory investments canceled or delayed, elected officials railing against government support of EVs, disappointed dealers crying «Told you so.»

There've been plenty of speed bumps, but the story is more nuanced. Consider that global EV sales hit record numbers in 2023, accelerating to all-time highs in many markets, including the U.S., where sales grew by nearly 50 percent year over year to 1.1 million. Elsewhere, the Chinese automaker BYD alone sold nearly 1.6 million EVs.

Granted, there's still a long way to go. It's true that, in certain cases, demand is weaker than hoped. Sales of the Ford F-150 Lightning jack-rabbited out of the box in 2022 but have not met projections since, and the company recently announced plans to cut production from 3200 trucks a week to less than half that. Still, the fact that 24,165 Lightnings sold in 2023 would've brought gasps of amazement 10 years ago.

2017 The first model year for the sub-$40,000 Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3.
2020 GM and Tesla EVs become ineligible for the federal government's $7500 tax credit, as each company's sales exceed the volume cap.
2021 and 2022 Several new battery-electric models enter the market, many of which qualify for the full tax credit.
2023 The IRS's updated EV tax-credit rules, which no longer use overall sales as an eligibility metric, come into effect.

When contextualizing today's gloom, remember that many manufacturers made bold EV promises when faced with government-mandated zero-emission standards. Within the past few years, General Motors announced a goal of selling only zero-emission light-duty vehicles by 2035. Nissan promised that EVs will account for more than half of its sales by 2030. Jaguar said it would be all electric by 2025, while Ford announced plans to sell more than 2 million EVs in 2026. Yet, through the trade association the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, nearly all automakers oppose EPA proposals aimed at 67 percent of new-vehicle sales being electric by 2032.

In many cases, the